Monday, July 10, 2006

The spot price of gold declined to just above $622 a troy ounce on currency movements, with more potential weakness on the cards for the metal in the short term, analysts and traders said.

In afternoon trade, gold was quoted at $622,05/oz, down $7,65/oz from the metal’s previous close. The euro was last quoted at $1,2753, $0,0057 weaker than in late trade on Friday.

The gold price had no legs and the better US dollar has also contributed to the downside for the metal, said London-based Bank of Nova Scotia- ScotiaMocatta’s Simon Weeks.

If gold does not climb above $625/oz today then it could test $615/oz, said Weeks.

Last week gold failed to move higher due to selling pressure despite the weaker US June non-farm payrolls, he said.

"Gold is lower on the softer euro," said Johannesburg-based trader for Standard Bank Charles Leishman.

On Friday, gold popped higher after the non-farm payroll figures with the metal encountering resistance before coming off, he said.

Gold appeared to be sluggish and could soon find support, said Leishman.

In the long run, gold was likely to move higher again, but for now the metal could decline to $610/oz or $615/oz, he said.

"A bullish weekly candle indicates that gold has the potential to make further gains next week but upon testing the $637/oz retracement level daily charts warn that the recent rally is stretched," Absa/Barclays technical analysts wrote.

The risk early this week was that gold corrected some of its recent gains and could trigger a snapback to $610/oz, before the market could press on to higher levels, said the bank.

"We have been surprised by the speed and extent of the recovery in precious metals prices over the past few weeks. We had expected the metals to trade sideways near the bottom of their recent ranges but rather we have seen a recovery of up to 50% of recent losses," London-based UBS analysts wrote.

"Despite this recovery we believe that metal prices may be at the top of their Northern Hemisphere summer ranges and we do not expect any further gains until the Fed has clearly finished - or at least paused - from its rate hiking," said UBS.

UBS’ one-month forecast for gold is $600/oz and $650/oz on a three-month view, said the bank.