Monday, October 30, 2006

Gold rose to its highest level in more than a month on Monday, boosted by a weaker dollar after news of unexpectedly soft economic growth data from the United States, analysts said.

Spot gold was quoted up at $603.10/$604.10 an ounce by 1217 GMT compared with $598.20/$599.70 an ounce late in New York on Friday. Earlier on Monday it hit a session peak of $606, the highest since September 28.

U.S. gross domestic product grew at an annualised 1.6 percent in the third quarter, the lowest rate since the first quarter of 2003, compared with a consensus forecast of 2.2 percent and 2.6 percent in the second quarter.

The data and the sliding dollar prompted investors to pile into gold, seen as a safe-haven against economic turmoil.

"The dollar has taken a bit of a tumble and that in turn has boosted gold, said James Moore, analyst at TheBullionDesk.com.

The dollar was trading near 1-month lows against other major currencies such as the euro and yen on growing speculation that the U.S. Federal Reserve's next move could be to cut benchmark interest rates and boost economic growth.

"It makes you think the Fed may not raise interest rates any further," Moore said. "It's a potentially difficult situation, where the U.S. economy may be looking at stagflation."

Risk-averse investors also use gold as a hedge against inflation, clues to which will come later on Monday with the release of September personal consumption expenditure data -- the Fed's favourite measure.

OIL INFLUENCE

Crude oil prices fell below $60 a barrel on doubts about OPEC's resolve to cut production. Lower oil prices would normally turn sentiment against gold.

"Oil is a negative, but hasn't really had much impact," a trader said. "The market isn't really sure about OPEC's cuts ... Today, it's all to do with the dollar."

But analysts say with the winter season approaching supply concerns could dominate gold prices.

"Opec production data/decisions and U.S. inventories should remain pivotal market drivers," Heraeus said in a research note.

Gold reversed its downtrend last week on news of a large drop in U.S. crude stockpiles, which sent oil prices soaring, back above $60 a barrel.

Falling demand from the physical market with the passing of the Indian festival season is another factor that has, perhaps briefly, been sidelined.

Too, news that Dubai's gold imports fell 9 percent in the third quarter to 117.6 tonnes against the same period last year did little lasting damage to gold sentiment.

However, the metal does have some technical barriers on the upside. The first is an area of congestion between $607 and $608, followed by $640 a high from early September.

Silver, which has been tracking gold, faces first resistance at $12.30 an ounce.

It was last quoted at $12.11/$12.18 an ounce, below the 7-week high of $12.24 an ounce seen earlier in the session and compared with $12.02/$12.09 late in New York on Friday.

Platinum rose to $1,086/$1,xxx from $1,071/1,076 late in New York. Earlier on Monday it hit $1,087 an ounce, the highest since October 20. Palladium was firm at $321/326 an ounce from $316/321.