Wednesday, October 18, 2006

Gold tracked crude oil higher in cautious trade on Wednesday, but the metal may lack impetus to rise further after it failed to break $600 an ounce.

The physical sector saw light bullion purchases from Indonesia ahead of next week's Muslim holiday. Other precious metals were also volatile, with silver, platinum and palladium trading below their recent highs.

Spot gold rose to $591.75/592.25 an ounce from $590.30/591.30 late in New York.

Gold hit a two-week high of $597.50 an ounce on Tuesday, just below the key barrier of $600, before a drop in oil ignited selling from speculators.

Investec Australia pegged support at $570 an ounce.

"There's some buying from Indonesia but I don't think they want to stock up too much. Gold may attempt to break $600 again but I think oil will play a crucial role," said a dealer in Singapore.

Indonesians have returned to jewelry shops ahead of the Eid al-Fitr celebration, but dealers said purchases from jewelry makers had been limited, suggesting that many factories relied on old stocks.

The World Gold Council puts Indonesia's gold consumption at 81 tonnes in 2005, making it Southeast Asia's main buyer of the precious metal used in jewelry and investment.

Premiums for gold bars were steady at between 20 and 60 U.S. cents an ounce to the spot London price in Singapore

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Crude oil hovered above $59 a barrel as dealers weighed an expected rise in robust U.S. crude oil stocks against an OPEC meeting that is likely to seal a deal to cut output.

"I think the oil price will gradually get better. If oil is over $60, the gold price will increase but I don't expect it to happen at this moment," said Yukuji Sonoda, precious metals analyst at Daiichi Commodities in Tokyo.

"$600 is still a big resistance," he said.

Ministers from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries are scheduled to meet in Qatar on Thursday to clear a deal to remove 1 million barrels from daily output to try to stem oil's drop from a high of $78.40 in July.

But OPEC has been divided on whether it should cut output from actual production of roughly 27.5 million barrels per day (bpd) or from its nominal 28 million bpd ceiling.

Key gold futures on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange , currently August 2007, dropped 29 yen per gram to 2,275 yen ($19.13), reflecting losses in New York's COMEX market.

Investors also took profits after pushing up the contract to a two-week high of 2,310 yen on Tuesday.

In other precious metals, platinum rose to $1,088/1,093 an ounce from $1,067/1,071 late in New York on Tuesday, when it hit a two-week high of $1,096.

Palladium rose to $317/322 an ounce from $315/320 in New York. The metal hit an intraday high of $324 on Tuesday, its best level since mid-September.

Silver edged up to $11.72/11.79 an ounce from $11.68/11.75 late in New York but traded below Tuesday's five-week high of $11.90 an ounce.