
The AMEX Gold Bugs Index recently tested the 50 day moving average before moving higher to close the week at 429.88
"Supply of gold mining is going down, exploration and discoveries is going down and demand is going up.
"The overall economic environment really suggests gold will be positive over the next few years at least."
After failing to complete the breakout above 370, the AMEX Gold Bug index has retraced from the recent highs and is now testing support at the 200 day moving average of 336.
The Gold Bug Index traded sideways for most of the week and finished at 356.82A gold bar, eight gold chains and 11 ornate gold pieces were among the artifacts divers from Blue Water Ventures said they found earlier this week.
Duncan Mathewson, a marine archaeologist and partner in Blue Water Ventures, said the artifacts are from the Spanish galleon Santa Margarita, which sank during a storm in 1622.
The treasures were found in nearly 18 feet of water about 40 miles west of Key West, Mathewson said.
"We're following the road to the treasure," Mathewson said. "We're on the trail, right smack where we need to be."
An initial cache of treasure and artifacts from the galleon was discovered in 1980 by the late treasure-hunting pioneer Mel Fisher.
Blue Water Ventures has been searching for the remainder of the wreck for two years under a joint-venture agreement with Mel Fisher's Treasures, now headed by Fisher's son, Kim Fisher.
The artifacts and treasure were taken to Fisher's Key West headquarters Thursday for conservation. Mathewson estimates more than $150 million to $200 million worth of artifacts and treasure from the Santa Margarita remains to be recovered.
Shares added 73 cents, or 3.8 percent, to $20.01 in midday trading on the New York Stock Exchange. The stock has traded between $15.85 and $26.94 in the past 52 weeks and is down about 11 percent in the same period.
The euro traded at $1.3439, up from $1.3360.
Gold traded in London at $677.60, up from $671.90 Monday on the New York Mercantile Exchange. In Zurich, gold traded at $677.00, up from $673.05. Gold closed at $676.55 an ounce in Hong Kong, up $11.10 an ounce from Wednesday's close of $665.45.


| Newmont Mining | NEM | 14.30% |
| Goldcorp Inc | GG | 14.22% |
| Freep't Mcmoran Copper&gold'b' | FCX | 9.54% |
| Golden Star Resources | GSS | 6.42% |
| Kinross Gold | KGC | 5.73% |
| Yamana Gold | AUY | 5.71% |
| Eldorado Gold Corp | EGO | 5.66% |
| Hecla Mining | HL | 5.57% |
| Randgold Resources Ads | GOLD | 4.98% |
| Gold Fields Ltd Adr | GFI | 4.83% |
| Meridian Gold | MDG | 4.77% |
| Iamgoldcorp | IAG | 4.72% |
| Agnico Eagle Mines | AEM | 4.71% |
| Coeur d'alene Mines | CDE | 4.42% |
| Harmony Gold Mining Adr | HMY | 4.41% |
China produced 240 tons of gold in 2006, an increase of 7.15 percent. The country plans to raise its gold production by 8 percent this year to 260 tons, according to the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC).
Net income surged to $418 million, or 48 cents a share, from $175 million, or 32 cents, a year earlier, the Toronto-based company said today in a statement. Sales gained 74 percent to $1.35 billion.
Barrick overtook Newmont Mining Corp. as the biggest gold producer with its $10 billion acquisition of Placer Dome Inc. in March, adding mines in Nevada, Australia and Tanzania. Chief Executive Officer Gregory Wilkins increased output by 48 percent in the quarter.
``Barrick gives you an exposure to the bullion,'' Benoit Brillon, who manages C$6 billion ($5.1 billion) including Barrick at Natcan Investment Management Inc. in Montreal, said before the earnings announcement. ``The cost structure is a bit better at Barrick'' than Newmont, he said.
Shares of Barrick rose 92 cents to C$37.25 yesterday in Toronto Stock Exchange trading. The have risen 13 percent in the past year, compared with a 23 percent rally in gold and a 17 percent decline in Denver-based Newmont.
Gold output in the fourth quarter rose to 2.44 million ounces from 1.65 million ounces, Barrick said.
Proven and probable gold reserves at Amapari have been cut to 485,000 ounces as of Dec. 31, 2006, reflecting the exclusion of sulphide mineralization that was previously included.
That will result in the $170M impairment charge, Vancouver-based Goldcorp said in a release.
Goldcorp said it will end up with about 24 per cent of Peak Gold, the new name for GPJ Ventures.
"This transaction underscores our commitment to simplifying Goldcorp's asset portfolio," said CEO Kevin McArthur.
"It sharpens our geographic focus and provides capital that will help fund our growth opportunities and enhance our already-strong financial flexibility. Our ownership interest in Peak Gold will also allow us to participate financially in the future success of that exciting new growth platform."
Spot gold was quoted at 670 usd an ounce, up from the 668.80 level seen at Friday's close. Earlier in today's session, gold struck 673.15 usd, a fresh seven-month high since last Wednesday.
'Gold has rallied back above 670 usd after strong buying was seen from Japan and in response to the bomb attacks in India,' said TheBullionDesk.com analyst James Moore.
The dollar has softened recently after some soft US data, increasing gold's appeal as an alternative investment.
"It's total nonsense," the source close to the company said.
The Sunday Times had said without citing sources that Polyus Gold had approached Anglo American about its stake in Anglo Gold Ashanti worth 2.25 billion pounds.
The newspaper said one option under consideration is for Anglo American, owner of 41 percent of Anglo Gold and the world's third largest miner, to take a minority stake in an enlarged company
Polyus Gold declined to comment.
No one at Anglo American could immediately be reached for comment. The company is due to report its annual results on Wednesday.
The WGC said there was positive tonnage growth in the investment and industrial segments and double-digit dollar growth in the jewellery sector.
The record dollar values for overall demand and jewellery demand occurred despite a fall in supply, reducing the quantity of gold purchased.
The 2006 figures, compiled independently for the WGC by GFMS, reveal that identifiable investment demand in 2006 was 7% higher than in 2005 in tonnage terms, (637t vs 596t) and 45% higher in dollar terms, spurred by a 27% year on year tonnage increase in holdings of gold Exchange Traded Funds and similar products.
The fourth quarter was particularly strong with a 19% rise in tonnage terms and a 51% increase in dollar terms, the WGC noted.
Jewellery demand up 14%
Jewellery demand rose 14% in dollar terms in 2006 as a whole, but fell back by 16% in tonnage terms due to a volatile gold price in the first half of the year.
In the industrial sector, demand rose by 7% in tonnage terms and 45% in dollar terms to set a new annual record.
Industrial demand was at its highest ever at 458 tons, while jewellery sales reached an all time record in US$ terms at $44bn.
James Burton, chief executive of the World Gold Council said: "We are very encouraged by the record value of gold demand in 2006, showing that consumers are spending more on gold as jewellery and as an investment.
"However, we must recognise that although we have seen a steep rise in the dollar value of gold demand, there was also a decline in tonnage demand as extreme price volatility impacted consumers' jewellery purchases."
Price volatility
The first half of the year proved a difficult one for the gold jewellery market as high price volatility deterred consumers from buying. However, more stable prices towards the end of the year resulted in a very satisfactory level of demand.
"I am particularly pleased to see the continued growth in demand for gold in industry.
"Gold's unique properties make it ideal for use in the development of medical applications, pollution control, air bags, mobile telephones, laptop computers, and many other things that we consider indispensable in today's society."
Supply fell 13% in tonnage terms including a sharp reduction in net selling by central banks.
The WGC said 2007 began with brisk demand in most jewellery markets in January, while investor interest has also remained positive. Market research findings show that sentiment towards gold jewellery in key markets remains strong.
Prospects for both jewellery and investment demand in the first half of the year are good, although any return of excessive price volatility could hinder jewellery purchases, the WGC concluded.Gold jumped to a seven-month high of $671.85 an ounce on Wednesday as the dollar hit a six-week low against the euro after U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said inflation pressures were starting to ease.
Gold is often used as a hedge against fluctuations in the dollar, so moves inversely to it.
Long-term sentiment was bullish, but in the near future gold may fall before it rises again, analysts said.
"We remain positive on gold and forecast the metal will average $700/oz this year, based on a combination of gold market fundamentals -- primarily due to a much improved buying from the physical market and the material chance of lower net central bank sales -- and expectations of a weaker USD," John Reade, head of metals strategy at UBS, said in market report.
"But gold has moved too high, too quickly and, to be blunt, the wrong types of investors own it."
Short-term speculators who have bought gold are likely to sell it once the price rises in order to make a quick profot.
Technical signs on the charts also indicated a short-term pullback was likely en route to its July high of $677 and beyond.
"Into here we expect the market to struggle short term, but bigger picture, we remain steadfast bulls," analysts at Barclays Capital said.
Gold sometimes moves in tandem with crude-oil prices, which have dropped 17 percent this month. Gold is down 2 percent in January after climbing 23 percent in 2006.
``The crude keeps heading lower, and that's keeping pressure on the downside for gold,'' said Nick Ruggiero, a trader at Eagle Futures Inc. in New York.
Gold futures for February delivery declined $1, or 0.2 percent, to $625.90 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices rose 3.3 percent last week.
A futures contract is an obligation to buy or sell a commodity at a set price for delivery by a specific date.
Some investors buy gold when energy expenses climb. Gold reached a 26-year high of $732 an ounce in May. Oil climbed to a record $78.40 a barrel in July. Crude fell below $51 today after Saudi Arabia's oil minister rejected calls for further cuts in production.
Spot gold
The metal started 2007 around $640 and lost nearly $40 on dollar strength before bargain-hunters started picking it up.
"Physical and technical buying has again provided good support, with the recovery in the base metals improving gold's outlook," said James Moore, analyst at TheBullionDesk.com.
"However, the potent combination of oil weakness/dollar strength could still trigger long liquidation, pressuring gold back to the $585 region," he said.
Technical signals were mixed, chart-readers at Barclays Cpaital said, but there was more chance of a negative move than a positive one despite the recent corrective rally.
"Having failed to make headway above 614 the way is clear for another run at 600 and possibly an overshoot," it said in a note.
The dollar hit a 13-month high against the yen on Thursday, though it slipped from six-week highs against the euro as investors waited for clues from European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet on whether interest rates could rise further in February.
Spot gold
"The strength in the dollar in the last couple of days has prompted some long liquidation, but we would expect the dollar to weaken further again and act as a catalyst for gold to move back higher," said Frederic Panizzutti, analyst at MKS Finance.
"We are clearly positive for the first half of the year on expectations that the dollar has more downside potential on the back of easing monetary policy in the United States in a context of an extending trade deficit."
The dollar rose for the second day against a basket of major currencies after data showed the U.S. trade gap shrank in November to its narrowest in 16 months.
Gold often moves in the opposite direction to the dollar and is generally seen as a hedge against oil-led inflation.
Oil fell more then $1 back below $55 a barrel, threatening a repeat of the previous session's rout that took prices to a 19-month low.
"Much of the bullishness that fixates on gold derives from pent-up frustration at years of record low prices, and this is still working itself through and might further to go, but much depends on the dollar," said a report, prepared by London-based Virtual Metals for financial services provider Fortis.
OUTLOOK
Barclays Capital lifted its gold price forecast for 2007 on expectations of a significant depreciation in the dollar over the second half of the year and a recovery in oil prices.
It saw the average gold price at $620 in the first quarter of the current year and at $640, $650 and $670 in subsequent quarters.
But UBS Investment Bank lowered its prediction for gold to $625 in a month from now against its earlier forecast of $660 and to $650 in three months versus a previous prediction of $690.
"Gold's ability to hold above $600 over the past couple of days has improved the metals technical outlook, with the metal now in the process of establishing a base at $605," said James Moore, analyst at TheBullionDesk.com.
"Sentiment is likely to remain extremely volatile short term ... however longer-term sentiment remains firmly bullish with the current dip potentially offering investors an entry point."
Dealers said purchases by jewellers in Asia in the past two days helped gold stay above $600 but the metal would be under pressure because of a strong dollar.
In other metals, platinum
But gold remained under pressure because of falling prices of base metals, they said.
"There is relatively strong support at $600 an ounce, but if you have got a sell-off of base metals across the board, then it would be relatively difficult for gold to be isolated from that," said Michael Widmer, metals analyst at Calyon Corporate and Investment Bank.
"Overall, I would still say that there are more indicators for a weakness in the dollar and that should support gold prices going forward. For the rest of this year, the macro-economic picture would be probably weaker rather than stronger," he said.
Spot gold
Bullion investors were cautious because of a fall in base metals, with copper extending losses and putting other metals under pressure. [ID:nL08890893]
The dollar steadied near six-week peaks versus the euro, keeping gains made in the wake of surprisingly strong U.S. jobs and manufacturing data.
Gold often moves in the opposite direction of the dollar and is seen as a hedge against oil-led inflation.
"At these lower levels, physical demand is expected to provide some form of support, at least in front of the psychological level of $600 and again at $590," Standard Bank said in a daily report.
James Moore, metals analyst at TheBullionDesk.com, said Friday's sell-off in gold appeared a little excessive and lower prices might generate technical as well as physical buying.
But Wolfgang Wrzesniok-Rossbach, head of precious metals marketing at Germany's Heraeus, was not that positive.
"With many traders and investors being caught on the wrong foot in both markets, it seems however doubtful that they are able to provide the necessary short term support that is needed to stabilise the gold price right now," he said.
In other precious metals, silver
Platinum prices
But the long-term outlook remained positive on expectations that the dollar would weaken because of concerns about U.S. economic growth, dealers said.
"It's just a consolidation phase. I think we will see gold higher later in the year, but short-term sentiment is little damaged," a European precious metals trader said.
The release of key U.S. economic data this week might provide cues about the dollar outlook and set direction for the precious metals market, he said, adding that gold also was under pressure because of a sharp decline in base metals prices.
Spot gold fell as low as $624.20 an ounce and was quoted at $625.20/626.20 by 0957 GMT, down from $627.70/628.70 in New York late on Wednesday.
The dollar built on the previous day's gains versus major currencies, with investors looking to see if key data on jobs and the service sector matches a pick up in U.S. manufacturing.
Gold, which often moves in the opposite direction of the dollar, tumbled more than $12 in the U.S. market on Wednesday as the currency rallied after the Institute for Supply Management said its manufacturing index climbed.
The metal ended 2006 on a high note, rising 23 percent on an influx of funds diversifying their investments into markets with the potential for higher returns than stocks. It spiked to a 26-year high of $730 an ounce on May 12, 2006.
"There is a fair bit of key economic data in the U.S. over coming days, and that really is going to determine the fate of the greenback and where gold prices are likely to trend," Craig James, chief economist at Commonwealth Securities in Sydney, said.
The market awaited the release of the closely watched non-farm payrolls report on Friday. A weak reading would likely strengthen the view the U.S. Federal Reserve may start cutting interest rates in coming months to shore up a slowing economy.
"Falls in energy prices and other commodities, such as copper and other base metals, are worrying, but gold will continue to draw a lot of safe-haven demand with the situation in Iran unresolved and continuing tension in the Middle East," said Hisaaki Tasaka, a market analyst at Ace Koeki Co. Ltd.
Copper futures on the London Metal Exchange hovered near nine-month lows on worries about slowing demand for the metal. Other base metals also declined.
In other precious metals, silver fell to $12.47/12.54 an ounce from $12.58/12.65, while platinum slipped to $1,121/1,126 an ounce from $1,126/1,132. Palladium was unchanged at $334/339 an ounce.
Spot palladium rose to its highest in nearly four months, while platinum eased after climbing to one-month highs.
Gold
"Gold has started the year quite well. We expect the dollar to weaken a bit in the first quarter and I think that's positive for gold," said Matthew Turner, analyst at Virtual Metals.
"The trend might continue in the second quarter as well."
But the dollar extended gains after the Institute for Supply Management's reading on the factory sector beat expectations for December, following a surprise contraction in the previous month.
"Clearly the key influence remains the dollar," Stephen Briggs, economist at SG Corporate and Investment Banking, said.
A rise in the dollar makes gold costlier for holders of other currencies and often lowers bullion demand.
The market also awaited minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve's policy meeting, due later on Wednesday, for clues to interest rates and the dollar outlook.
"Dollar movements will be closely watched in the coming sessions with the yellow metal still vulnerable short-term to profit taking after moving up on limited volumes over the Christmas period," TheBullionDesk.com said in a daily note.
CENTRAL BANK BUYING
The market also noted gold buying by a European central bank last month, a period which saw selling of the metal by other central banks in the region under an agreement that limits gold sales.
Dealers said any buying of gold by central banks was positive for the market.
The European Central Bank said in a statement last week that figures to the week ended Dec 22. reflected the selling of gold by one European central bank and "a net purchase by another Eurosystem central bank". It gave no further details.
Dealers said the market was expected to remain choppy in the coming days.
"Typically market liquidity only properly returns in the second week of January, and a new trading year brings fresh budgets for investors to act on underlying convictions," said Robin Bhar, analyst at UBS Investment Bank.
In other precious metals, palladium